FINAL BRACKET PROJECTION

The title says it all! Check it out and compare it to the actual bracket which comes out in about an hour. Here we go:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	North Carolina	Kansas	Gonzaga
2	Oregon	Arizona	Duke	Kentucky
3	Louisville	Florida	UCLA	Baylor
4	West Virginia	Notre Dame	Butler	Florida St.
5	Cincinnati	SMU	Virginia	Purdue
6	Creighton	Minnesota	Iowa St.	Saint Mary's
7	Wichita St.	Wisconsin	Michigan	Arkansas
8	Maryland	Oklahoma St.	Dayton	VCU
9	Miami FL	South Carolina	Virginia Tech	Northwestern
10	Seton Hall	Wake Forest	Vanderbilt	Xavier
11	Michigan St.	Kansas St.	Middle Tennessee	USC
11		Providence		Marquette
12	Vermont	Rhode Island	UNC Wilmington	Nevada
13	Princeton	East Tennessee St.	New Mexico St.	Bucknell
14	Northern Kentucky	Iona	Florida Gulf Coast	Winthrop
15	Texas Southern	Kent St.	North Dakota	Troy
16	Mount St. Mary's	Jacksonville St.	South Dakota St.	New Orleans
16	NC Central			UC Davis

Bracket Projection: 3/11

One last quick one before the final prediction tomorrow. No new auto-bids since the last update, but they will start coming in waves. 14 auto-bids will be secured today, with the final six finishing up tomorrow. The MAC prediction has switched back to Akron after Ohio lost, and the Big Sky prediction has switched back to North Dakota after Eastern Washington lost. Also, Florida flipped with Duke, Virginia flipped with Cincinnati, Saint Mary's flipped with Notre Dame, Michigan flipped with South Carolina, USC flipped with Vanderbilt, Michigan State flipped with Illinois State (both still 11 seeds, but the Redbirds are now in the First Four), and Syracuse dropped out, being replaced by Kansas State. Here's the rest of it:

	NEW YORK	KANSAS CITY	MEMPHIS	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kansas	North Carolina	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida St.	Duke	Arizona	UCLA
4	Cincinnati	Butler	West Virginia	Florida
5	Virginia	Purdue	SMU	Notre Dame
6	Maryland	Iowa St.	Minnesota	Saint Mary's
7	Creighton	Dayton	Oklahoma St.	Wisconsin
8	Michigan	Miami FL	Arkansas	Wichita St.
9	VCU	South Carolina	Northwestern	Virginia Tech
10	Vanderbilt	Seton Hall	Wake Forest	Xavier
11	USC	Michigan St.	Marquette	Providence
11			Illinois St.	Kansas St.
12	UT Arlington	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington
13	Princeton	Vermont	East Tennessee St.	Bucknell
14	Florida Gulf Coast	Winthrop	New Mexico St.	Akron
15	Iona	Northern Kentucky	UC Irvine	Texas Southern
16	Mount St. Mary's	Jacksonville St.	New Orleans	North Dakota
16			North Carolina Central	South Dakota St.

Bracket Projection: 3/9

We're now three days from Selection Sunday, and not much has changed. This bracket is almost exactly the same, except with more green. Gonzaga, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, Mount St. Mary's, and South Dakota State all secured bids in the last two days. I also flipped Cal St. Bakersfield and North Dakota with New Mexico State and Eastern Washington, not because either former team lost, but because Kenpom has the two latter team's as slight favorites to win their respective conference tournaments. It will only be slightly embarrassing if I later have to switch them back, but oh well. Here's what we've got:

	NEW YORK	KANSAS CITY	MEMPHIS	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kansas	North Carolina	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida St.	Florida	Arizona	UCLA
4	Duke	Virginia	West Virginia	Butler
5	Cincinnati	Purdue	SMU	Saint Mary's
6	Maryland	Notre Dame	Iowa St.	Minnesota
7	Creighton	Dayton	Oklahoma St.	Wisconsin
8	Miami FL	Arkansas	South Carolina	Wichita St.
9	VCU	Michigan	Northwestern	Virginia Tech
10	USC	Seton Hall	Wake Forest	Xavier
11	Vanderbilt	Illinois St.	Marquette	Providence
11			Michigan St.	Syracuse
12	UT Arlington	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington
13	Princeton	Vermont	East Tennessee St.	Bucknell
14	Ohio	Florida Gulf Coast	Winthrop	New Mexico St.
15	Iona	Northern Kentucky	UC Irvine	Texas Southern
16	Mount St. Mary's	Jacksonville St.	New Orleans	Eastern Washington
16	South Dakota St.		North Carolina Central

Bracket Projection: 3/7

I imagine just about every day this week something will happen to shake up the bracket, so these posts might become a daily thing. We shall see. Yesterday three more teams punched their ticket: UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, and Iona. I had all of them in already, but I had to change my pick from the Summit League as the South Dakota State Jackrabbits knocked off in-state rival South Dakota; as a result they are now projected in. Four more teams will secure an auto-bid today (although the loser of the WCC Tournament finals will still certainly receive an at-large bid). I also flipped Butler with Florida State and Creighton with Maryland. Here is the full bracket as of today:

	NEW YORK	KANSAS CITY	MEMPHIS	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kansas	North Carolina	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida St.	Florida	Arizona	UCLA
4	Duke	Virginia	West Virginia	Butler
5	Cincinnati	Purdue	SMU	Saint Mary's
6	Maryland	Notre Dame	Iowa St.	Minnesota
7	Creighton	Dayton	Oklahoma St.	Wisconsin
8	Miami FL	Arkansas	South Carolina	Wichita St.
9	VCU	Michigan	Northwestern	Virginia Tech
10	USC	Seton Hall	Wake Forest	Xavier
11	Vanderbilt	Illinois St.	Marquette	Providence
11			Michigan St.	Syracuse
12	UT Arlington	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington
13	Princeton	Vermont	East Tennessee St.	Bucknell
14	Ohio	Florida Gulf Coast	Cal St. Bakersfield	Winthrop
15	Iona	Northern Kentucky	UC Irvine	Texas Southern
16	Mount St. Mary's	Jacksonville St.	New Orleans	North Dakota
16			North Carolina Central	South Dakota St.

Bracket Projection: 3/6

The regular season is done, and conference tournament season is upon us. Four teams have already punched their ticket to the tournament: Jacksonville State, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, and Wichita State. Everyone else is pretty sure whether they're in or out, with the exception of possible bid thieves and a few bubble teams whose fate will be determined by the results of conference tournaments. The biggest thing to figure out is the seeding, and here's where I have things as of today (green highlight means the team has secured an automatic bid):

	NEW YORK	KANSAS CITY	MEMPHIS	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kansas	North Carolina	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida	Butler	Arizona	UCLA
4	Duke	Virginia	West Virginia	Florida St.
5	Cincinnati	Purdue	SMU	Saint Mary's
6	Creighton	Notre Dame	Iowa St.	Minnesota
7	Dayton	Maryland	Oklahoma St.	Wisconsin
8	Miami FL	Arkansas	South Carolina	Wichita St.
9	VCU	Michigan	Northwestern	Virginia Tech
10	USC	Seton Hall	Wake Forest	Xavier
11	Illinois St.	Vanderbilt	Marquette	Providence
11			Michigan St.	Syracuse
12	UT Arlington	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington
13	Princeton	Vermont	East Tennessee St.	Bucknell
14	Ohio	Florida Gulf Coast	Cal St. Bakersfield	Winthrop
15	Iona	Northern Kentucky	South Dakota	UC Irvine
16	Eastern Washington	Jacksonville St.	New Orleans	Texas Southern
16	Mount St. Mary's		North Carolina Central

Biggest Movers (since last Monday): Xavier has been crashing hard the last few weeks, finishing 9-9 in the Big East and suddenly a legitimate bubble team. I have them as a 10. California closed out the season with crippling losses to Utah and Colorado, and Kansas State finished 8-10 in the Big XII. Both of those teams have some work to do in their respective conference tournaments if they'd like to get back into the tournament picture. Replacing them is Vanderbilt, who turned things around to finish 10-8 in the SEC, and of course, Wake Forest.

1 seeds: No changes. These will probably hold, although Gonzaga's spot is the shakiest. If one of the 2 seeds goes on a run and wins their conference tournament, they could potentially jump them, but I doubt it.

Big Ten: Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan all hold steady on their seed lines. Maryland and Northwestern each move up a seed after their wins over Michigan State and Michigan, respectively. The Spartans, meanwhile, move down into the First Four after dropping their final two games at Illinois and Maryland. The Illini, meanwhile, were closing in on the field before dropping an embarrassing game to Rutgers, essentially ending their tournament hopes. And somehow Iowa is in the conversation after closing the year on a four game winning streak to finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. I still don't think they'll get in, but they're certainly making things interesting. Barring a magical run from someone in the Big Ten Tournament, the seven Big Ten teams in the field now will probably be the same come Sunday.

Michigan: The Wolverines got to that elusive 10-8 in conference play after a heartbreaking buzzer-beater against Northwestern before setting the nets on fire in Lincoln last night. Let's take a look at how likely that 10-8 mark was as the season progressed:

January 2: 20%

January 9: 16%

January 12: 10%

January 23: 12%

January 27: 22%

February 1: 18%

February 9: 14%

February 12: 24%

February 17: 33%

February 20: 28%

February 27: 52%

March 5: 63%

It's amazing to look back at the team's struggles and think about how unlikely it is that they ended up finishing the way they did. The turnaround has been fun to watch. So now they will certainly be in the tournament, with a game this week against Illinois, a game Kenpom claims Michigan has a 70% chance of winning. If they can win that one, another showdown with conference champion Purdue awaits. The only thing left to play for is seeding, and I think Michigan will be in an 8-9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament unless they can knock off the Boilermakers again. 

Be on the lookout for continued updates throughout the week, before my final projection is made, probably minutes before the actual bracket is revealed. 

Bracket Projection: 3/5

I realized I put the wrong date Thursday's bracket, which put it in the wrong column on BracketMatrix, but oh well. Today we have the correct date, just in time for tomorrow's full post to make it obsolete. Jacksonville State punches the first official ticket...right into a 16 seed play-in game. And the Horizon League's top two teams--Valparaiso and Oakland--both lost in big upset games, paving the way for...Northern Kentucky? Maybe? It will be interesting to see how the rest of that tournament shakes out. Other movement: Duke flipped with UCLA, Oklahoma State flipped with Dayton, Xavier flipped with Arkansas, and California dropped out, being replaced with Wake Forest. Full bracket update coming tomorrow, as usual.

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	North Carolina	Kansas	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida	Butler	UCLA	Arizona
4	Florida St.	West Virginia	Duke	Cincinnati
5	Purdue	Virginia	SMU	Saint Mary's
6	Iowa St.	Notre Dame	Creighton	Minnesota
7	Wisconsin	Maryland	Dayton	South Carolina
8	Miami FL	Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	Virginia Tech
9	Wichita St.	Xavier	Michigan	VCU
10	USC	Seton Hall	Northwestern	Michigan St.
11	Marquette	Illinois St.	Wake Forest	Providence
11	Syracuse			Kansas St.
12	Nevada	UT Arlington	UNC Wilmington	Middle Tennessee
13	Monmouth	Vermont	Princeton	East Tennessee St.
14	Winthrop	Cal St. Bakersfield	Bucknell	Akron
15	Florida Gulf Coast	South Dakota	Northern Kentucky	UC Irvine
16	Mount St. Mary's	New Orleans	Texas Southern	North Dakota
16	Jacksonville St.	North Carolina Central

Bracket Projection: 3/1

We're in crunch time now, where every day things can shift slightly as teams make their final push towards qualifying for the tournament, so I'm attempting to tweak the bracket throughout the week before publishing another full update on Monday. As they stand, Oklahoma State flipped with Iowa State, Maryland flipped with Xavier (who should probably be even lower), Virginia Tech flipped with VCU, and Winthrop replaced UNC Asheville after the Bulldogs were upset by the Campbell Camels in the Big South Tournament. Here is the full bracket as it stands:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	North Carolina	Kansas	Gonzaga
2	Baylor	Oregon	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Florida	Butler	Duke	Arizona
4	Florida St.	West Virginia	UCLA	Cincinnati
5	Purdue	Virginia	SMU	Saint Mary's
6	Iowa St.	Notre Dame	Creighton	Minnesota
7	Wisconsin	Maryland	Oklahoma St.	South Carolina
8	Miami FL	Dayton	Xavier	Virginia Tech
9	Wichita St.	Arkansas	Michigan	VCU
10	USC	Seton Hall	Northwestern	Michigan St.
11	Marquette	Illinois St.	California	Providence
11	Syracuse			Kansas St.
12	Nevada	UT Arlington	UNC Wilmington	Middle Tennessee
13	Monmouth	Vermont	Princeton	Valparaiso
14	Bucknell	Akron	Belmont	East Tennessee St.
15	Cal St. Bakersfield	Winthrop	Florida Gulf Coast	South Dakota
16	North Carolina Central	New Orleans	Texas Southern	UC Irvine
16	Mount St. Mary's	North Dakota