Bracket Projection: 1/31

Once again I'm a bit late on this, and today I'm just publishing the bracket and nothing else. This projection is as of yesterday (1/30), so doesn't include the games that occurred last night. An additional post will be coming tomorrow with all the resume analysis you're used to seeing on these posts. For now just enjoy where the bracket currently stands, with our Wolverines back in by the skin of their teeth:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Baylor	Kansas	Gonzaga
2	Arizona	North Carolina	Kentucky	Louisville
3	Virginia	Butler	Florida State	Oregon
4	West Virginia	UCLA	Creighton	Florida
5	Cincinnati	Wisconsin	Duke	Notre Dame
6	Maryland	Purdue	Saint Mary's	Xavier
7	South Carolina	SMU	Northwestern	Minnesota
8	Indiana	Virginia Tech	USC	Dayton
9	Iowa St.	Arkansas	Clemson	TCU
10	Marquette	Michigan St.	Kansas St.	VCU
11	Illinois St.	Middle Tennessee	Wake Forest	Miami FL
11			Seton Hall	Michigan
12	Akron	Wichita St.	Nevada	UNC Wilmington
13	UT Arlington	New Mexico St.	Vermont	Monmouth
14	Florida Gulf Coast	Bucknell	Belmont	Valparaiso
15	East Tennessee St.	Princeton	UNC Asheville	North Dakota St.
16	Mount St. Mary's	Weber St.	Texas Southern	UC Irvine
16	North Carolina Central	New Orleans

Bracket Projection: 1/23

The bracket continues to take shape. This week saw the fewest giant discrepancies between my bracket and most of the experts' brackets. Let's take a look at where things stand:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	SAN JOSE	KANSAS CITY
1	Villanova	Kentucky	Baylor	Kansas
2	Florida St.	North Carolina	Gonzaga	Louisville
3	Arizona	Butler	Creighton	UCLA
4	West Virginia	Oregon	Virginia	Florida
5	Duke	Cincinnati	Wisconsin	Notre Dame
6	Minnesota	Saint Mary's	Purdue	Xavier
7	South Carolina	SMU	Maryland	USC
8	Clemson	TCU	Virginia Tech	Northwestern
9	Iowa St.	Michigan St.	Arkansas	Dayton
10	Indiana	VCU	Pittsburgh	Seton Hall
11	Marquette	Wake Forest	Illinois St.	Kansas St.
11	Miami FL			Georgia
12	Akron	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington
13	Chattanooga	Monmouth	New Mexico St.	Vermont
14	Florida Gulf Coast	Winthrop	Bucknell	Valparaiso
15	Belmont	Princeton	North Dakota St.	Georgia Southern
16	Mount St. Mary's	Weber St.	UC Irvine	Texas Southern
16	North Carolina Central	New Orleans

Biggest Movers: Arizona Takes the biggest jump after an exciting road win over UCLA, putting themselves in the driver's seat in the Pac 12. They are up to a 3 seed. Virginia Tech swings back up to an 8 after an unexplained drop last week. On the bubble, Illinois falls out after losing three straight, Texas Tech drops out after losing to Oklahoma State, and Wichita State just barely inched out despite not losing any notable games. Replacing them is Marquette, who just knocked off Creighton, Kansas State, who upset West Virginia, and Georgia, who is up to 4-3 in the SEC. For what it's worth, the line between Georgia and Wichita State was razor-thin.

1 Seeds: They are the same for the fourth week in a row, and these four seem slightly more separated from the pack this week as none of them lost a game. Villanova and Kentucky are extremely close as far as picking the number 1 overall seed, but we're sticking with Villanova for now. This section has also become the "Gonzaga undefeated watch" section, so you should know that probability is up to 44.2%.

Big Ten: We're finally seeing some sense here. Wisconsin, still the favorite to win the conference, is now the highest seeded team in the conference as a 5, which makes sense. Purdue and Minnesota are down to 6's. Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Indiana stay where they were last week as we march down the seed lines. Illinois, as mentioned earlier, has dropped back out.

Michigan: We covered this a bit last week, but Michigan lost a tough road game to Wisconsin, one they were very much expected to lose. They followed that up with an encouraging win over Illinois, a team that blew out the Wolverines just two weeks ago. That win was enough to knock the Illini out, but not enough to bump the Wolverines back in. This week's chart is just barely better than last week's:

It's still centered around 8-10, which is not good, but at least that 7-11 bar isn't as high as it was last week. In order to really swing things towards .500 or better, Michigan will have to win some games that Kenpom considers a tossup or an expected loss. Luckily, they have two opportunities to do just that this week with games against Indiana (54% win probability) and at Michigan State (38%). Two wins would be fantastic, and would totally change the course of the season. 1-1 is much more likely, and is still a solid step in the right direction. Two losses, on the other hand, would probably be too big of a hole to climb out of. Let's hope the newfound desire to play defense we saw against Wisconsin and Illinois can continue in the Wolverines' two big matchups this week.

Bracket Projection: 1/18

Disclaimer: I ran the simulation yesterday (1/17), but haven't gotten a chance to publish it until today. So all the data used is behind a day. Looking at yesterday's results, it's hard to tell if any of the games would have changed the projection all that much, but I'm guessing it would look pretty much the same. Anyways, here's what my computer spit out this week:

	NEW YORK	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE	MEMPHIS
1	Villanova	Kansas	Baylor	Kentucky
2	North Carolina	Creighton	Louisville	Gonzaga
3	Florida	Florida St.	Butler	UCLA
4	West Virginia	Virginia	Oregon	Duke
5	Arizona	Minnesota	Xavier	Purdue
6	Notre Dame	Wisconsin	Saint Mary's	Cincinnati
7	South Carolina	Maryland	USC	Clemson
8	Northwestern	Dayton	SMU	TCU
9	Iowa St.	Michigan St.	Arkansas	Pittsburgh
10	Indiana	Virginia Tech	Seton Hall	VCU
11	Illinois St.	Wichita St.	Wake Forest	Texas Tech
11			Illinois	Miami FL
12	Monmouth	Nevada	UNC Wilmington	Middle Tennessee
13	Vermont	Akron	Valparaiso	Chattanooga
14	Lehigh	Princeton	Florida Gulf Coast	New Mexico St.
15	UNC Asheville	Belmont	Georgia Southern	Texas Southern
16	North Carolina Central	Weber St.	UC Irvine	Fort Wayne
16	Mount St. Mary's	Sam Houston St.

Biggest Movers: Duke drops down to a 4 seed after losing two games in a row to Florida State and Louisville, two teams that as a result are now ahead of them in the bracket. Virginia Tech is all the way down to a 10 after a loss to Notre Dame, which seems a bit harsh. TCU is trending upwards to an 8 seed after wins over Texas and Iowa State. Dropping out from last week's bracket are Rhode Island, who was upset by La Salle, North Carolina State, who dropped games to lowly Boston College and Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma State, who is now having a disastrous season having lost their first five conference games. Replacing the teams that dropped out are Illinois and Illinois State, the latter of which hopes to win their conference and assure a bid, and Texas Tech, who makes their first appearance here despite being 2-3 in conference.

1 seeds: Once again the same, although Gonzaga is extremely close behind the leaders. After pointing out that Baylor only had a 0.06% chance of going undefeated, the Bears promptly dropped their first game of the season to a very good West Virginia team. Gonzaga, on the other hand, beat Saint Mary's, the only other good team in their conference. The Bulldogs' chances of going undefeated are now up to 33.1%.

Big Ten: The seeds still seem a bit off to me. Wisconsin is now the heavy favorite to win the conference, so it would be very odd to see Purdue and Minnesota seeded above them come Selection Sunday. The Badgers are still 38th in RPI, though, which is the reason they're still hanging out as a 6 seed. Northwestern is now 4-2 in the conference, creeping up to an 8 seed. It's really starting to look like this is the year the Wildcats finally break through. Michigan State and Indiana flip spots, as the Spartans are also up to 4-2, while the Hoosiers are still struggling at 2-3. Illinois blew out Michigan, and as a result, the Illini sneak back in, while the Wolverines remain on the outside.

Michigan: I, like many other fans, was thoroughly disappointed in Michigan's performance in Champaign last week. They bounced back at home against Nebraska, but that wasn't enough to put them back in the tournament picture. At this point they'll need a couple of "big wins" like they had last year against Maryland, Purdue, and Indiana. Since starting this article, the Wolverines lost a chance at one of those big wins, as they fell just short in Madison. They return home this weekend for a quick rematch with Illinois, a game they absolutely need if they want to stay alive. Here's what the chart tells us about expectations:

It is still very ugly, and only incrementally better than the graph I tweeted after the Illinois game (and much worse than the graph from last week). 8-10 is now up to 23.6%, and 7-11 is more likely than 9-9. If you are like me and think Michigan really should go above .500 in conference, there is only a 15.6% chance of that happening. Ugh. We'll check in next week after the next Illinois game, and if that one is a loss, it might be just about time to close the door on this season. Let's hope that is not the case.

Bracket Projection: 1/9

I'm sorry, but it had to be done. You will not find our beloved Michigan Wolverines in this bracket projection. We'll discuss why they're out, and what they can do to get back in, later in this post. For now, here's the full bracket:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kentucky	Kansas	Baylor
2	UCLA	Duke	Gonzaga	Louisville
3	North Carolina	Butler	Virginia	Creighton
4	Florida St.	Oregon	Xavier	Florida
5	Minnesota	Purdue	Arizona	West Virginia
6	Wisconsin	Notre Dame	Saint Mary's	Cincinnati
7	Clemson	USC	Virginia Tech	Maryland
8	South Carolina	SMU	Arkansas	Dayton
9	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.	Northwestern	Indiana
10	Seton Hall	VCU	Michigan St.	Miami FL
11	Wake Forest	UNC Wilmington	TCU	North Carolina St.
11	Rhode Island			Oklahoma St.
12	Monmouth	Wichita St.	UT Arlington	Middle Tennessee
13	Boise St.	Oakland	Chattanooga	Bucknell
14	Belmont	New Mexico St.	Florida Gulf Coast	Vermont
15	UNC Asheville	Texas Southern	Princeton	Ohio
16	North Dakota St.	New Orleans	North Carolina Central	UC Irvine
16		Mount St. Mary's		Weber St.

Biggest Movers: Dayton is the big riser after wins over St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island. They are the favorite to win the Atlantic 10. Minnesota is all the way up to a 5 after three straight wins against Purdue, Northwestern, and Ohio State. USC lost at home to Cal and drops to a 7. Indiana continues to struggle at 1-2 in the Big Ten; they're down to a 9. Miami drops to a 10 after losing to Syracuse, and Oklahoma State is hanging on for dear life after starting 0-3 in conference play. Meanwhile, Michigan State and North Carolina State make their first appearances as their respective RPI rankings start to climb. Oddly enough, Pittsburgh climbs up to a 9 and Wake Forest comes back in the field despite poor starts to conference play. Dropping out are Texas A&M, Illinois, and of course Michigan, who are all off to rough starts in their respective conferences.

1 seeds: They are exactly the same as last week. Villanova actually lost on the road to Butler, but Butler is a great team and the Wildcats were still able to hold on to my #1 overall seed. That leaves Baylor and Gonzaga as the lone undefeateds. According to Kenpom, Gonzaga has a 14.1% chance of running the table, while Baylor's chances are only 0.06%.

Big Ten: I've already discussed quite a few Big Ten teams already, but we'll cover the rest here as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament. Most notably, Purdue's win over Wisconsin moves the Boilermakers up to a 4 seed. Maryland's win over Michigan bumped them up to a 7 seed and knocked Michigan out. Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, and Illinois are all discussed in the previous section, and Northwestern stays right where they were last week.

Michigan: Alright, time to figure this out. Dropping out of the tournament is bad, but it's not a full-on red alert. There are a lot of games left to be played, but in order to get back in, they must exceed expectations as they currently stand. The cumulative win probability graph is as bad as it has been all season:

Yikes. 9-9 is now the median at 21%, and 8-10 is more likely than 10-8. Remember what I just said about exceeding expectations? That's because these are the current expectations. The Wolverines have a huge week coming up with a road game against fellow "First Four Out" team Illinois, followed by a home game against conference wild card Nebraska. I really think they need to win both to stay alive. Kenpom claims they have a 38.2% chance of winning both. There have certainly been flashes of greatness from this Michigan team, but they have yet to piece it all together for 40 minutes since the 2k Classic. Now would be an excellent time for the proverbial light to go on.

Bracket Projection: 1/2

The first week of conference play is in the books, and it came with the usual assortment of exciting upsets. Due to the conservative nature of this prediction system and my belief that good teams are still good even when they lose a game on the road in conference, the field doesn't change too much. Let's take a look at what my computer spit out this week:

	NEW YORK	MEMPHIS	KANSAS CITY	SAN JOSE
1	Villanova	Kentucky	Kansas	Baylor
2	Virginia	Gonzaga	Duke	Louisville
3	UCLA	North Carolina	Creighton	Xavier
4	West Virginia	Butler	Arizona	Florida
5	Florida St.	Oregon	Saint Mary's	USC
6	Notre Dame	Cincinnati	Wisconsin	Purdue
7	Minnesota	Clemson	Indiana	Arkansas
8	Miami FL	Virginia Tech	South Carolina	Maryland
9	Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	Northwestern	SMU
10	Seton Hall	VCU	TCU	Michigan
11	Illinois	Wichita St.	Pittsburgh	UT Arlington
11	Rhode Island		Texas A&M
12	Monmouth	Middle Tennessee	UNC Wilmington	Dayton
13	Valparaiso	Chattanooga	Akron	Boise St.
14	Winthrop	Vermont	New Mexico St.	Tennessee St.
15	Florida Gulf Coast	Texas Southern	Lehigh	Princeton
16	North Dakota St.	North Carolina Central	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	UC Irvine
16	Mount St. Mary's		Weber St.

Biggest Movers: South Carolina dropped from a 6 to an 8 after a 16 point loss to Memphis. Wake Forest dropped out after losing their first two ACC games, making way for Rhode Island, one of my first teams out last week, to sneak into the field. Everyone else is right where they were last week or within one seed line in either direction.

1 seeds: Two of my original 1 seed predictions have moved back into the 1 line: Kentucky and Kansas. Louisville lost to Virginia in conference play, which dropped them two a 2 seed, and Gonzaga's RPI dropped after playing a few low-ranked teams, leaving room for the others to take their place. I still expect Baylor to drop off at some point, but they keep on winning, as does the #1 overall Villanova.

Big Ten: Minnesota beat Purdue, which initially moved the Boilermakers down one seed line and the Golden Gophers up one, but I had to swap Minnesota with Notre Dame to preserve not having teams from the same conference play in the second round, something the selection committee often does. Indiana lost at home to Nebraska, but stays as a 7 seed because they were probably under-seeded to begin with. Northwestern moves up a seed due to the general logjam that exists in the middle of the field. You'll see teams in that region move up or down slightly seemingly at random throughout the season. Maryland and Michigan stay where they were despite each losing a game, and Ohio State and Michigan State stay just outside, although it is very close.

Michigan: As mentioned earlier, the Wolverines dropped their first Big Ten matchup at Carver Hawkeye, a place they haven't won at since 2011. This, of course, isn't the end of the world, especially since 11/14 teams in the Big Ten already have at least one loss. They're 87th in RPI, so they still have to get that number up over the next few weeks. I said last week that I'd like to see them go 4-1 over their first 5 games, so that now would require them winning 4 straight against Penn State, Maryland, Illinois, and Nebraska. Kenpom says they have a 27% chance of completing that winning streak. Speaking of percent chances...

The graph took a hit, which is expected when you lose a toss-up game like Michigan did, but 10-8 is still the median, and it has now grown over 20% likelihood. I'll be excited to see it grow positive as Michigan starts to win a few games. When we come back, they'll have played home games against Penn State and Maryland, and they have a 63% chance of going 2-0 this week. Let's hope they do, and hope the computer program rewards them and they start to creep up the seed lines.