Sunday, March 12, 2017

FINAL BRACKET PROJECTION

The title says it all! Check it out and compare it to the actual bracket which comes out in about an hour. Here we go:


NEW YORK MEMPHIS KANSAS CITY SAN JOSE
1 Villanova North Carolina Kansas Gonzaga
2 Oregon Arizona Duke Kentucky
3 Louisville Florida UCLA Baylor
4 West Virginia Notre Dame Butler Florida St.
5 Cincinnati SMU Virginia Purdue
6 Creighton Minnesota Iowa St. Saint Mary's
7 Wichita St. Wisconsin Michigan Arkansas
8 Maryland Oklahoma St. Dayton VCU
9 Miami FL South Carolina Virginia Tech Northwestern
10 Seton Hall Wake Forest Vanderbilt Xavier
11 Michigan St. Kansas St. Middle Tennessee USC
11 Providence Marquette
12 Vermont Rhode Island UNC Wilmington Nevada
13 Princeton East Tennessee St. New Mexico St. Bucknell
14 Northern Kentucky Iona Florida Gulf Coast Winthrop
15 Texas Southern Kent St. North Dakota Troy
16 Mount St. Mary's Jacksonville St. South Dakota St. New Orleans
16 NC Central UC Davis

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/11

One last quick one before the final prediction tomorrow. No new auto-bids since the last update, but they will start coming in waves. 14 auto-bids will be secured today, with the final six finishing up tomorrow. The MAC prediction has switched back to Akron after Ohio lost, and the Big Sky prediction has switched back to North Dakota after Eastern Washington lost. Also, Florida flipped with Duke, Virginia flipped with Cincinnati, Saint Mary's flipped with Notre Dame, Michigan flipped with South Carolina, USC flipped with Vanderbilt, Michigan State flipped with Illinois State (both still 11 seeds, but the Redbirds are now in the First Four), and Syracuse dropped out, being replaced by Kansas State. Here's the rest of it:


NEW YORK KANSAS CITY MEMPHIS SAN JOSE
1 Villanova Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida St. Duke Arizona UCLA
4 Cincinnati Butler West Virginia Florida
5 Virginia Purdue SMU Notre Dame
6 Maryland Iowa St. Minnesota Saint Mary's
7 Creighton Dayton Oklahoma St. Wisconsin
8 Michigan Miami FL Arkansas Wichita St.
9 VCU South Carolina Northwestern Virginia Tech
10 Vanderbilt Seton Hall Wake Forest Xavier
11 USC Michigan St. Marquette Providence
11 Illinois St. Kansas St.
12 UT Arlington Nevada Middle Tennessee UNC Wilmington
13 Princeton Vermont East Tennessee St. Bucknell
14 Florida Gulf Coast Winthrop New Mexico St. Akron
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Texas Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's Jacksonville St. New Orleans North Dakota
16 North Carolina Central South Dakota St.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/9

We're now three days from Selection Sunday, and not much has changed. This bracket is almost exactly the same, except with more green. Gonzaga, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, Mount St. Mary's, and South Dakota State all secured bids in the last two days. I also flipped Cal St. Bakersfield and North Dakota with New Mexico State and Eastern Washington, not because either former team lost, but because Kenpom has the two latter team's as slight favorites to win their respective conference tournaments. It will only be slightly embarrassing if I later have to switch them back, but oh well. Here's what we've got:


NEW YORK KANSAS CITY MEMPHIS SAN JOSE
1 Villanova Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida St. Florida Arizona UCLA
4 Duke Virginia West Virginia Butler
5 Cincinnati Purdue SMU Saint Mary's
6 Maryland Notre Dame Iowa St. Minnesota
7 Creighton Dayton Oklahoma St. Wisconsin
8 Miami FL Arkansas South Carolina Wichita St.
9 VCU Michigan Northwestern Virginia Tech
10 USC Seton Hall Wake Forest Xavier
11 Vanderbilt Illinois St. Marquette Providence
11 Michigan St. Syracuse
12 UT Arlington Nevada Middle Tennessee UNC Wilmington
13 Princeton Vermont East Tennessee St. Bucknell
14 Ohio Florida Gulf Coast Winthrop New Mexico St.
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Texas Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's Jacksonville St. New Orleans Eastern Washington
16 South Dakota St. North Carolina Central

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/7

I imagine just about every day this week something will happen to shake up the bracket, so these posts might become a daily thing. We shall see. Yesterday three more teams punched their ticket: UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, and Iona. I had all of them in already, but I had to change my pick from the Summit League as the South Dakota State Jackrabbits knocked off in-state rival South Dakota; as a result they are now projected in. Four more teams will secure an auto-bid today (although the loser of the WCC Tournament finals will still certainly receive an at-large bid). I also flipped Butler with Florida State and Creighton with Maryland. Here is the full bracket as of today:


NEW YORK KANSAS CITY MEMPHIS SAN JOSE
1 Villanova Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida St. Florida Arizona UCLA
4 Duke Virginia West Virginia Butler
5 Cincinnati Purdue SMU Saint Mary's
6 Maryland Notre Dame Iowa St. Minnesota
7 Creighton Dayton Oklahoma St. Wisconsin
8 Miami FL Arkansas South Carolina Wichita St.
9 VCU Michigan Northwestern Virginia Tech
10 USC Seton Hall Wake Forest Xavier
11 Vanderbilt Illinois St. Marquette Providence
11 Michigan St. Syracuse
12 UT Arlington Nevada Middle Tennessee UNC Wilmington
13 Princeton Vermont East Tennessee St. Bucknell
14 Ohio Florida Gulf Coast Cal St. Bakersfield Winthrop
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Texas Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's Jacksonville St. New Orleans North Dakota
16 North Carolina Central South Dakota St.

Monday, March 6, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/6

The regular season is done, and conference tournament season is upon us. Four teams have already punched their ticket to the tournament: Jacksonville State, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, and Wichita State. Everyone else is pretty sure whether they're in or out, with the exception of possible bid thieves and a few bubble teams whose fate will be determined by the results of conference tournaments. The biggest thing to figure out is the seeding, and here's where I have things as of today (green highlight means the team has secured an automatic bid):


NEW YORK KANSAS CITY MEMPHIS SAN JOSE
1 Villanova Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida Butler Arizona UCLA
4 Duke Virginia West Virginia Florida St.
5 Cincinnati Purdue SMU Saint Mary's
6 Creighton Notre Dame Iowa St. Minnesota
7 Dayton Maryland Oklahoma St. Wisconsin
8 Miami FL Arkansas South Carolina Wichita St.
9 VCU Michigan Northwestern Virginia Tech
10 USC Seton Hall Wake Forest Xavier
11 Illinois St. Vanderbilt Marquette Providence
11 Michigan St. Syracuse
12 UT Arlington Nevada Middle Tennessee UNC Wilmington
13 Princeton Vermont East Tennessee St. Bucknell
14 Ohio Florida Gulf Coast Cal St. Bakersfield Winthrop
15 Iona Northern Kentucky South Dakota UC Irvine
16 Eastern Washington Jacksonville St. New Orleans Texas Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's North Carolina Central

Biggest Movers (since last Monday): Xavier has been crashing hard the last few weeks, finishing 9-9 in the Big East and suddenly a legitimate bubble team. I have them as a 10. California closed out the season with crippling losses to Utah and Colorado, and Kansas State finished 8-10 in the Big XII. Both of those teams have some work to do in their respective conference tournaments if they'd like to get back into the tournament picture. Replacing them is Vanderbilt, who turned things around to finish 10-8 in the SEC, and of course, Wake Forest.

1 seeds: No changes. These will probably hold, although Gonzaga's spot is the shakiest. If one of the 2 seeds goes on a run and wins their conference tournament, they could potentially jump them, but I doubt it.

Big Ten: Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan all hold steady on their seed lines. Maryland and Northwestern each move up a seed after their wins over Michigan State and Michigan, respectively. The Spartans, meanwhile, move down into the First Four after dropping their final two games at Illinois and Maryland. The Illini, meanwhile, were closing in on the field before dropping an embarrassing game to Rutgers, essentially ending their tournament hopes. And somehow Iowa is in the conversation after closing the year on a four game winning streak to finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. I still don't think they'll get in, but they're certainly making things interesting. Barring a magical run from someone in the Big Ten Tournament, the seven Big Ten teams in the field now will probably be the same come Sunday.

Michigan: The Wolverines got to that elusive 10-8 in conference play after a heartbreaking buzzer-beater against Northwestern before setting the nets on fire in Lincoln last night. Let's take a look at how likely that 10-8 mark was as the season progressed:

January 2: 20%
January 9: 16%
January 12: 10%
January 23: 12%
January 27: 22%
February 1: 18%
February 9: 14%
February 12: 24%
February 17: 33%
February 20: 28%
February 27: 52%
March 5: 63%

It's amazing to look back at the team's struggles and think about how unlikely it is that they ended up finishing the way they did. The turnaround has been fun to watch. So now they will certainly be in the tournament, with a game this week against Illinois, a game Kenpom claims Michigan has a 70% chance of winning. If they can win that one, another showdown with conference champion Purdue awaits. The only thing left to play for is seeding, and I think Michigan will be in an 8-9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament unless they can knock off the Boilermakers again. 

Be on the lookout for continued updates throughout the week, before my final projection is made, probably minutes before the actual bracket is revealed. 

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/5

I realized I put the wrong date Thursday's bracket, which put it in the wrong column on BracketMatrix, but oh well. Today we have the correct date, just in time for tomorrow's full post to make it obsolete. Jacksonville State punches the first official ticket...right into a 16 seed play-in game. And the Horizon League's top two teams--Valparaiso and Oakland--both lost in big upset games, paving the way for...Northern Kentucky? Maybe? It will be interesting to see how the rest of that tournament shakes out. Other movement: Duke flipped with UCLA, Oklahoma State flipped with Dayton, Xavier flipped with Arkansas, and California dropped out, being replaced with Wake Forest. Full bracket update coming tomorrow, as usual.


NEW YORK MEMPHIS KANSAS CITY SAN JOSE
1 Villanova North Carolina Kansas Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida Butler UCLA Arizona
4 Florida St. West Virginia Duke Cincinnati
5 Purdue Virginia SMU Saint Mary's
6 Iowa St. Notre Dame Creighton Minnesota
7 Wisconsin Maryland Dayton South Carolina
8 Miami FL Oklahoma St. Arkansas Virginia Tech
9 Wichita St. Xavier Michigan VCU
10 USC Seton Hall Northwestern Michigan St.
11 Marquette Illinois St. Wake Forest Providence
11 Syracuse Kansas St.
12 Nevada UT Arlington UNC Wilmington Middle Tennessee
13 Monmouth Vermont Princeton East Tennessee St.
14 Winthrop Cal St. Bakersfield Bucknell Akron
15 Florida Gulf Coast South Dakota Northern Kentucky UC Irvine
16 Mount St. Mary's New Orleans Texas Southern North Dakota
16 Jacksonville St. North Carolina Central

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Bracket Projection: 3/1

We're in crunch time now, where every day things can shift slightly as teams make their final push towards qualifying for the tournament, so I'm attempting to tweak the bracket throughout the week before publishing another full update on Monday. As they stand, Oklahoma State flipped with Iowa State, Maryland flipped with Xavier (who should probably be even lower), Virginia Tech flipped with VCU, and Winthrop replaced UNC Asheville after the Bulldogs were upset by the Campbell Camels in the Big South Tournament. Here is the full bracket as it stands:


NEW YORK MEMPHIS KANSAS CITY SAN JOSE
1 Villanova North Carolina Kansas Gonzaga
2 Baylor Oregon Kentucky Louisville
3 Florida Butler Duke Arizona
4 Florida St. West Virginia UCLA Cincinnati
5 Purdue Virginia SMU Saint Mary's
6 Iowa St. Notre Dame Creighton Minnesota
7 Wisconsin Maryland Oklahoma St. South Carolina
8 Miami FL Dayton Xavier Virginia Tech
9 Wichita St. Arkansas Michigan VCU
10 USC Seton Hall Northwestern Michigan St.
11 Marquette Illinois St. California Providence
11 Syracuse Kansas St.
12 Nevada UT Arlington UNC Wilmington Middle Tennessee
13 Monmouth Vermont Princeton Valparaiso
14 Bucknell Akron Belmont East Tennessee St.
15 Cal St. Bakersfield Winthrop Florida Gulf Coast South Dakota
16 North Carolina Central New Orleans Texas Southern UC Irvine
16 Mount St. Mary's North Dakota